PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- Reports that the Social Security  system will soon run out of money have been greatly exaggerated.         
    As sure as day follows night, the annual report from the board of  trustees of the OASDI fund (Old Age Survivors and Disability Insurance  otherwise known as Social Security) has brought forth alarms that the  fund will run out of money in the not-too-distant future.         
    Although flush with cash now and over at least the next 10 years, the  Social Security system is expected to gradually begin paying out more in  benefits than it takes in from payroll taxes with the result that by  2041 its assets, in the words of the trustees, will be exhausted.         
    For those who look at only the summary page, this conclusion is nothing  new.  Indeed, the trustees have come to the same conclusion every year  -- the only exception being the year the fund is expected to run dry.         
    In 2000, the system's actuaries thought the assets of this fund would be  exhausted by 2032.  Two years later it was 2037.  Now the projected  exhaustion date is 2041.         
    Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office, which makes these  projections as well, recently thought the system will remain solvent  until at least 2052.          
    Me, I don't make these projections personally, but I would like to point  out that this year, as has been the case every year in the past, the  actuaries have made and released not one but three projections.  They  call them low cost, intermediate and high cost.         
    The projection that has provoked these alarms is the intermediate  projection.  This reflects the trustees' consensus views regarding such  inputs as economic growth, productivity, inflation, earnings, employment  and interest rates.         
    Judging by past history, assumptions underlying the intermediate  projection are very conservative -- especially when it comes to economic  growth.  And as you might imagine, the speed at which the economy grows  has a lot to do with the other variables -- including the interest the  fund earns from investing its surplus in Treasuries.         
    The intermediate projection assumes that the economy will grow by an  annual rate of 2.3% per year between now and 2085.  This may be higher  than the 1.9% per year that was projected as recently as three years  ago, but it is still well below the 3.4% that the economy grew on  average between 1960 and 2005.         
    The actuaries' own low cost projection assumes an average annual growth  rate of 2.9% between now and 2085.  This is higher than the 2.3% pace  embodied in the intermediate projection, but it is still well below the  3.4% average of the past.         
    Guess what? Under the actuaries' low cost projection, the Social Security system never runs out of money!         
    That said, you might ask the question why this more realistic projection has escaped politicians from both major parties.         
    I don't know why, but I can only theorize that it's because they haven't  taken the time to read the entire report, which is available on the  system's website.               Here's the link.              
    If you go beyond the highlights section to the projections section, you will see exactly what I mean.           
    In other words -- if it ain't broke, don't fix it.                              
    Irwin Kellner is chief economist for MarketWatch and for Capital One Bank.  
 
 
 

 
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