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Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Truthdig - Reports - The Military-Industrial Complex: It’s Much Later Than You Think

By Chalmers Johnson

Editor’s note: Originally posted on TomDispatch.com.

Most Americans have a rough idea what the term “military-industrial complex” means when they come across it in a newspaper or hear a politician mention it. President Dwight D. Eisenhower introduced the idea to the public in his farewell address of January 17, 1961.  “Our military organization today bears little relation to that known by any of my predecessors in peacetime,” he said, “or indeed by the fighting men of World War II and Korea ... We have been compelled to create a permanent armaments industry of vast proportions ... We must not fail to comprehend its grave implications ... We must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex.”

Although Eisenhower’s reference to the military-industrial complex is, by now, well-known, his warning against its “unwarranted influence” has, I believe, largely been ignored. Since 1961, there has been too little serious study of, or discussion of, the origins of the military-industrial complex, how it has changed over time, how governmental secrecy has hidden it from oversight by members of Congress or attentive citizens, and how it degrades our Constitutional structure of checks and balances.

From its origins in the early 1940s, when President Franklin Delano Roosevelt was building up his “arsenal of democracy,” down to the present moment, public opinion has usually assumed that it involved more or less equitable relations—often termed a “partnership”—between the high command and civilian overlords of the United States military and privately-owned, for-profit manufacturing and service enterprises. Unfortunately, the truth of the matter is that, from the time they first emerged, these relations were never equitable.

In the formative years of the military-industrial complex, the public still deeply distrusted privately owned industrial firms because of the way they had contributed to the Great Depression. Thus, the leading role in the newly emerging relationship was played by the official governmental sector.  A deeply popular, charismatic president, FDR sponsored these public-private relationships.  They gained further legitimacy because their purpose was to rearm the country, as well as allied nations around the world, against the gathering forces of fascism. The private sector was eager to go along with this largely as a way to regain public trust and disguise its wartime profit-making.

In the late 1930s and early 1940s, Roosevelt’s use of public-private “partnerships” to build up the munitions industry, and thereby finally overcome the Great Depression, did not go entirely unchallenged. Although he was himself an implacable enemy of fascism, a few people thought that the president nonetheless was coming close to copying some of its key institutions. The leading Italian philosopher of fascism, the neo-Hegelian Giovanni Gentile, once argued that it should more appropriately be called “corporatism” because it was a merger of state and corporate power.  (See Eugene Jarecki’s The American Way of War, p. 69.)

Some critics were alarmed early on by the growing symbiotic relationship between government and corporate officials because each simultaneously sheltered and empowered the other, while greatly confusing the separation of powers.  Since the activities of a corporation are less amenable to public or congressional scrutiny than those of a public institution, public-private collaborative relationships afford the private sector an added measure of security from such scrutiny. These concerns were ultimately swamped by enthusiasm for the war effort and the postwar era of prosperity that the war produced. 

Beneath the surface, however, was a less well recognized movement by big business to replace democratic institutions with those representing the interests of capital. This movement is today ascendant.  (See Thomas Frank’s new book, The Wrecking Crew: How Conservatives Rule, for a superb analysis of Ronald Reagan’s slogan “government is not a solution to our problem, government is the problem.") Its objectives have long been to discredit what it called “big government,” while capturing for private interests the tremendous sums invested by the public sector in national defense. It may be understood as a slow-burning reaction to what American conservatives believed to be the socialism of the New Deal.

This is a small excerpt.  For the whole story:

Truthdig - Reports - The Military-Industrial Complex: It’s Much Later Than You Think

Truthdig - Reports - Acts of War

By Scott Ritter

The war between the United States and Iran is on. American taxpayer dollars are being used, with the permission of Congress, to fund activities that result in Iranians being killed and wounded, and Iranian property destroyed. This wanton violation of a nation’s sovereignty would not be tolerated if the tables were turned and Americans were being subjected to Iranian-funded covert actions that took the lives of Americans, on American soil, and destroyed American property and livelihood. Many Americans remain unaware of what is transpiring abroad in their name. Many of those who are cognizant of these activities are supportive of them, an outgrowth of misguided sentiment which holds Iran accountable for a list of grievances used by the U.S. government to justify the ongoing global war on terror. Iran, we are told, is not just a nation pursuing nuclear weapons, but is the largest state sponsor of terror in the world today.

Much of the information behind this is being promulgated by Israel, which has a vested interest in seeing Iran neutralized as a potential threat. But Israel is joined by another source, even more puzzling in terms of its broad-based acceptance in the world of American journalism: the Mujahadeen-e Khalk, or MEK, an Iranian opposition group sworn to overthrow the theocracy in Tehran. The CIA today provides material support to the actions of the MEK inside Iran. The recent spate of explosions in Iran, including a particularly devastating “accident” involving a military convoy transporting ammunition in downtown Tehran, appears to be linked to an MEK operation; its agents working inside munitions manufacturing plants deliberately are committing acts of sabotage which lead to such explosions. If CIA money and planning support are behind these actions, the agency’s backing constitutes nothing less than an act of war on the part of the United States against Iran.

This is a very long post so i only copied the first two paragraphs. For the complete story:
Truthdig - Reports - Acts of War

Truthdig - Cartoons - Arctic Oil

Truthdig - Cartoons - Arctic Oil

Offshore Drilling: We Have a Choice of Simple Confusion or Outright Lies | Election 2008 | AlterNet

Every day it seems gas prices are edging higher. For almost a year, oil prices have increased by 1 percent per week. A year ago, $100 per barrel seemed a nightmare fantasy to many. Today, oil at that price is viewed almost nostalgically -- as the good old days. In the face of growing price pressures during an election year, the Democratic and Republican parties have radically different answers, radically different approaches to the challenge. At the end of the day, neither is dealing with the fundamental challenges facing humanity with full honesty. One party seems caught in confusion and disarray; the other is providing direct answers to the challenge based on fundamental dishonesty -- answers that will aggravate, rather than solve, our problems.

Newt Gingrich has put forward a campaign calling for Drill Here! Drill Now! Pay Less! The campaign aims to gather millions of signatures for a petition to deliver to Congress, amid much press attention, demanding that the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR) and all areas of the offshore continental shelf (OCS) be opened to new oil drilling. This is being offered as a response to both our ever-growing dependence on imported oil and the current price crisis.

Seemingly done to test the waters, Gingrich's petition quickly gained attention and conservative support. Leading Republicans and Republican-leaning columnists echoed the narrative that the solution to all of America's problems is to drill, drill, drill. This is now the Republican mantra, as they seem to believe that they have found a winning political issue, no matter what the implications of this "win" might be for America's future. But the effort is reliant on such blatant spin that it is essentially a Big Lie.

While it extends seemingly across the entire right wing noise machine, a few examples provide a window on the disingenuous and deceitful words supporting the call to drill the hole even deeper rather than working to solve America's quite serious energy challenges.

George W. Bush

George W. Bush, in a recent Saturday radio address, provided a clear example of how truthiness, rather than truth, reigns in the efforts to promote oil exploration and drilling in the outer continental shelf.

From that radio chat:

First, we should expand American oil production by increasing access to offshore exploration on the outer continental shelf, or OCS. Experts believe that the OCS that is currently off limits could produce enough oil to match America's current production for almost 10 years.

Wow. The OCS would match today's U.S. oil production for almost 10 years? Want lower oil prices? Want energy independence? The answer is clear: Drill the OCS, now! That is, clear until you examine what the experts actually are saying.

A report last year by the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said that "access to the Pacific, Atlantic and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017.

Washington Post, July 13, 2008

Bush stated, quite bluntly, that opening up the OCS could match today's total U.S. oil production for a decade. He failed to mention that this would have minimal, if any impact, on America's energy posture for decades to come. The administration's own experts, who are far from enemies of the oil industry and oil production, state that this move would not begin to produce oil until a decade from now and that it would "not have a significant impact on domestic ... production ... before 2030." And, in 2030, that drilling would give us only a 3 percent increase over the 5.1 million or so barrels we currently produce. The EIA estimates that additional offshore drilling would add 200,000 barrels to the 2030 production. To place this into context, U.S. consumption is about 21 million barrels per day. Thus, the entire Republican effort to open up offshore drilling is about providing 1 percent of today's consumption levels, 22 years from now. Or, if you were to go and conceive a child right this second, you'd save a few cents per gallon and realize a minuscule savings at the pump when you drive down to see that child graduate from college.

It's a long article and you can read the whole thing here:

Offshore Drilling: We Have a Choice of Simple Confusion or Outright Lies | Election 2008 | AlterNet

Think Progress » Gates: War With Iran ‘Would Be Disastrous,’ It’s ‘The Last Thing We Need’

Admiral Fallon, who was the commander of CentCom in the middle east until 2 months ago, was fired from that position because he said there would be no war with Iran as long as he was in charge.  Last week, congress put Gen. Petraeus, Bush's yes man, in command of Cent Com.  This is an ominous sign.  But maybe, just maybe, Gates will stand in for Fallon and stop any attack on Iran.  Maybe.  Maybe the military will simply stand up and say no to this corrupted government and say, enough is enough.  How many Americans do we have to lose to keep oil at $140 and up for the oil industry and the bush oil cronies like cheney, condi, and halliburton?  If we attack Iran, the oil industry will get up to $400 a barrel for oil.  that would translate to about $8.00 a gallon for gasoline.  I suggest we all write to our congressmen and senators (links at the top of my blog page) and tell them not to allow this war with Iran to begin.  Judiciary committee chairman, John Conyers, has stated that is Bush insists on going to war with Iran, he will impeach him.  Russia has said that an attack on Iran is equivalent to an attack on them and they will not allow it.  What are these assholes thinking?  Is it worth it just to enrich a few oil barons at the top to allow this to happen?  How big of suckers do americans have to be to not realize what's happening here?  Just follow the money.  Who has benefited from the war in Iraq?  Certainly not the american people.  Terrorists attacks are up 7 fold since we invaded iraq.  It has cost of 3/4 of a trillion and expected to be 1.5 trillion by the time it's all over.  it's breaking our collective backs but the war profiteers have never had it better.  They are the ONLY ONE'S who benefit from these middle eastern wars.  The want it all and they want it at the highest price they can get.  If that means starting wars in every oil rich country, they'll be happy to oblige.  Venezuela is a great country with a beloved leader, yet you hear the oil industries microphone, the news media, spouting the horrors of hugo chavez.  That's because they want his oil and they are willing to let your children die for it.  It has nothing to do with democracy, freedom of liberty of the people of these countries.  IT'S ALL ABOUT OIL AND ALWAYS HAS BEEN.


In the most recent issue of the Army War College’s quarterly journal “Parameters,” Defense Secretary Robert Gates wrote an article (pdf) titled “Reflections on Leadership,” in which he examines the “three principles of war for a democracy” espoused by General Fox Conner — “a tutor and mentor to both” General Dwight D. Eisenhower and General George Marshall.

Gates applied one of Conner’s principles — “never fight unless you have to” — to the current situation with Iran:

Conner’s axiom — never fight unless you have to — looms over policy discussions today regarding rogue nations like Iran that support terrorism; that is a destabilizing force throughout the Middle East and Southwest Asia and, in my judgment, is hell-bent on acquiring nuclear weapons. Another war in the Middle East is the last thing we need. In fact, I believe it would be disastrous on a number of levels.

Gates added that “the military option must be kept on the table” but his overall assessment echoes a recent statement by Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Admiral Michael Mullen. Last week on Fox News Sunday, Mullen said “I’m fighting two wars, and I don’t need a third one” in Iran. Watch it:

Think Progress » Gates: War With Iran ‘Would Be Disastrous,’ It’s ‘The Last Thing We Need’

Think Progress » Toby Keith promotes pro-lynching song and movie on Colbert.

I watched this performance last night and wondered to myself why Colbert has this ass hole on his show at all.  When i listened to the lyrics i was stunned.  He talks about the good ol days of taking bad guys out to a big tree and throwing the rope over it and hanging them.  Then he brings up gangsters today.  This is clearly a song promoting the good ol days of vigilante lynchings without trial.  I can't believe anyone would buy this pig's crap.

"Last night, country singer Toby Keith appeared on the Colbert Report to promote his new movie, Beer for My Horses. The movie is based off his song by the same name, which he performed on the show — and whose lyrics promote vigilante-style hangings of anyone considered “wicked” or “evil”:

Grandpappy told my pappy, back in my day, son
A man had to answer for the wicked that he done
Take all the rope in Texas
Find a tall oak tree, round up all of them bad boys
Hang them high in the street for all the people to see that

Max Blumenthal notes that in Keith’s “Grandpappy’s” day, “3,437 African-Americans were lynched in the United States, mostly in the heart of Dixie.” Blumenthal also remarks on the racial undertones in the song’s video; the movie trailer depicts a “Mexican guy” who deals drugs and kidnaps Keith’s character’s girlfriend."


Think Progress » Toby Keith promotes pro-lynching song and movie on Colbert.

Citizens arrest. MS law

if Karl Rove or any of the Bush crime team show up in Mississippi, there is recourse for citizens to apply a citizens arrest against any of the criminals, as long as you have the statue numbers for the crimes committed. For Karl Rove could likely be detained on suspicion of obstruction of justice, having violated Title 1, Section 18, Chapter 73, S. 1505: i don't know what the title is for murder and lying a country into war but if you find those, let me know and i'll put them in my file in case these criminals ever show up down here i'll show up with another witness and make a citizens arrest. ;)
Mississippi law:
(1) An officer or private person may arrest any person without warrant, for an indictable offense committed, or a breach of the peace threatened or attempted in his presence; or when a person has committed a felony, though not in his presence; or when a felony has been committed, and he has reasonable ground to suspect and believe the person proposed to be arrested to have committed it; or on a charge, made upon reasonable cause, of the commission of a felony by the party proposed to be arrested. And in all cases of arrests without warrant, the person making such arrest must inform the accused of the object and cause of the arrest, except when he is in the actual commission of the offense, or is arrested on pursuit.

Can you say "Political Suicide?"

Schwarzenegger to sign pay cut order on Thursday

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger now plans to sign an executive order Thursday to reduce pay for about 200,000 state workers to the federal minimum wage and lay off 22,000 temporary workers and retired annuitants until the state has a budget, according to his office.
California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger now plans to sign an executive order Thursday to reduce pay for about 200,000 state workers to the federal minimum wage and lay off 22,000 temporary workers and retired annuitants until the state has a budget, according to his office.
Schwarzenegger to sign pay cut order on Thursday

Daily Kos: State of the Nation

Obama is going to have a full plate when he takes over the White House in January.  This president has run our deficit from 4 trillion surplus to a 5 trillion deficit.  He has turned our national debt from 4 trillion to 9 trillion. Yes folks, that's 9 trillion with a "T" and it all has to be paid back with interest.  Instead of raising taxes on the rich to pay for this war that only benefited the rich, Bush, instead, borrowed from China, Japan and Saudi Arabia to pay for his wars.  The economy has never been worse for the working man and woman and never been better for the richest among us.  McCain has the same economic policies as Bush that have run this country into the ground.  Suppressing unionization to  keep a cheap work force with the constant threat of allowing American companies to move our jobs off shore if we do unite and demand a living wage.  If you want 4 more years of the same oppressive economic policies that have turned us from the greatest lender nation into the greatest debtor nation in the world, vote for McCain.  Before you know it all of our jobs will be gone and the one's that are left will be paying half of what they paid 7 years ago.  It's already happened in the automotive and IT sectors, how long till it reaches yours?

He's going out with a bang.

The White House has increased its estimate for next year's deficit to nearly $490 billion, a record figure that will saddle the next president with deepening budget problems in his first year in office, a report due out Monday shows.

The projected deficit for the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1 is being driven higher by the continuing economic slowdown and larger-than-anticipated costs of the two-year, $168 billion fiscal stimulus package passed by Congress, said two senior administration officials with direct knowledge of the report. In February, President Bush predicted the 2009 deficit would be $407 billion.

The budget update shows this year's deficit headed under $400 billion, at least $10 billion less than projected, according to the two officials. That's partly because tax revenue held up reasonably well despite the weaker economy.

The rising deficit for 2009 marks a sharp turnaround for Bush's fiscal legacy. He inherited a $128 billion surplus when he came into office in 2001. It soon turned to red ink because of a recession, the Sept. 11 attacks and the war on terrorism.

These numbers don't include the costs of our two wars, either.

The biggest budget deficit recorded to date was $413 billion in 2004. In today's dollars, that would be about $478 billion.

That was during the GOP trifecta, when they had control of all branches of government. If the last eight years have taught us anything, it's that Republicans have no clue how to manage our nation's finances.


Daily Kos: State of the Nation

Obama did visit the troops. McCain is lying again.

Embedded Video

Richard Perle, War Architect, Exploring Iraq Oil Deal

Why republicans want war.  It's the oil stupid!  It always was!

The Wall Street Journal reports that neoconservative war architect Richard Perle is getting back into Iraq:

Influential former Pentagon official Richard Perle has been exploring going into the oil business in Iraq and Kazakhstan, according to people with knowledge of the matter and documents outlining possible deals.


Mr. Perle, one of a group of security experts who began pushing the case for toppling Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein about a decade ago, has been discussing a possible deal with officials of northern Iraq's Kurdistan regional government, including its Washington envoy, according to these people and the documents.

Think Progress remembers that Perle "resigned from his position on the Defense Policy Board in an attempt to 'defuse a controversy over charges he stood to profit from the war in Iraq.'"


Richard Perle, War Architect, Exploring Iraq Oil Deal

Ted Stevens Indicted On 7 Criminal Charges

I wondered if they would ever indict a Senator for bribery charges.  wonder how he'll get out of this one.

WASHINGTON — Sen. Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican senator and a figure in Alaska politics since before statehood, was indicted Tuesday on seven counts of failing to disclose thousands of dollars in services he received from a company that helped renovate his home.

Stevens, the first sitting U.S. senator to face federal indictment since 1993, has been dogged by a federal investigation into his home renovation project and whether he pushed for fishing legislation that also benefited his son, an Alaska lobbyist.

From May 1999 to August 2007, prosecutors said, the 84-year-old senator concealed "his continuing receipt of hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of things of value from a private corporation."

The indictment unsealed Tuesday says the items included: home improvements to his vacation home in Alaska, including a new first floor, garage, wraparound deck, plumbing, electrical wiring; as well as a Viking gas grill, furniture and tools. He also was accused of failing to report swapping an old Ford for a new Land Rover to be driven by one of his children.

Justice Department officials were holding a news conference later Tuesday to discuss the charges against Stevens.

Messages left at both Stevens' Senate office in Washington and his campaign office in Anchorage were not immediately returned. His attorney also did not return calls.

Prosecutors said Stevens "took multiple steps to continue" receiving things from oil services company VECO Corp., and its founder, Bill Allen. At the time, the indictment says, Allen and other VECO employees were soliciting Stevens for "multiple official actions .... knowing that Stevens could and did use his official position and his office on behalf of VECO during that same time period."

VECO's requests included funding and other aid for the oil services company's projects and partnerships in Pakistan and Russia. It also included federal grants from several agencies _ as well as help in building a national gas pipeline in Alaska's North Slope Region, according to the indictment filed in U.S. District Court in Washington.


Ted Stevens Indicted On 7 Criminal Charges

How to soak the tax payer and enrich the grotesquely wealthy at the same time

A devastating blow to the much-hyped revival of atomic power has been delivered by an unlikely source -- the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The NRC says the "standardized" designs on which the entire premise of returning nuclear power to center stage is based have massive holes in them, and may not be ready for approval for years to come.

Delivered by one of America's most notoriously docile agencies, the NRC's warning essentially says: that all cost estimates for new nuclear reactors -- and all licensing and construction schedules -- are completely up for grabs, and have no reliable basis in fact. Thus any comparisons between future atomic reactors and renewable technologies are moot at best. And any "hard number" basis for independent financing for future nukes may not be available for years to come, if ever.

These key points have been raised in searing testimony before state regulators by Jim Warren of the North Carolina Waste and Awareness Reduction Network and Tom Clements of the South Carolina Friends of the Earth, and by others now challenging proposed state-based financing for new Westinghouse AP-1000 reactors. The NRC gave conditional "certification" to this "standardized" design in 2004, allowing design work to continue. But as recently as June 27, the NRC has issued written warnings that hundreds of key design components remain without official approval. Indeed, Westinghouse has been forced to actually withdraw numerous key designs, throwing the entire permitting process into chaos.

The catastrophic outcome of similar problems has already become tangible. After two years under construction, the first "new generation" French reactor being built in Finland is already more than two years behind schedule, and more than $2.5 billion over budget. The scenario is reminiscent of the economic disaster that hit scores of "first generation" reactors, which came in massively over budget and, in many cases, decades behind promised completion dates.

In North and South Carolina, public interest groups are demanding the revocation of some $230 million in pre-construction costs already approved by state regulators for two proposed Duke Energy reactors. In both those states, as well as in Florida, Alabama and Georgia, Westinghouse AP-1000 reactors have been presented to regulatory commissions to be financed by ratepayers as they are being built.

This astounding pro-utility scheme forces electric consumers to pay billions of dollars for nuclear plants that may never operate, and whose costs are indeterminate. Sometimes called Construction Work in Progress, it lets utilities raise rates to pay for site clearing, project planning, and down payments on large equipment and heavy reactor components, such as pressure vessels, pumps and generators, that can involve hundreds of millions of dollars, even before the projects get final federal approval. The process in essence gives utilities an incentive to drive up construction costs as much as they can. It allows them to force ratepayers to cover legal fees incurred by the utilities to defend themselves against lawsuits by those very ratepayers. And the public is stuck with the bill for whatever is spent, even if the reactor never opens -- or if it melts down before it recoups its construction costs, as did Pennsylvania's Three Mile Island Unit Two in 1979, which self-destructed after just three months of operation.


Even the Government's Nuclear Agency Thinks an Atomic Renaissance Is a Bad Idea | Environment | AlterNet

How Important Was the Surge? | The American Prospect

The past few weeks have been momentous for the national conversation about Iraq. Nouri al-Maliki's explicitly stated insistence on a timetable for American withdrawal was transformative. For the first time, the Iraqi people, the American people, and the Iraqi government have all clearly expressed a desire for America to end its occupation of Iraq. For some in America, this has sounded like an endorsement of a well-defined withdrawal plan. For others, it has been validation of the surge strategy, and testament to the need to stay the course.

Nowhere has this tension been more acute than in the rapid-fire press releases between the two presidential candidates. As Randy Scheunemann, John McCain's foreign policy adviser, put it, "The fundamental truth remains that Senator McCain was right about the surge and Senator Obama was wrong. We would not be in the position to discuss a responsible withdrawal today if Senator Obama's views had prevailed." This raises an interesting empirical question, however. There's no doubt that the past year or two have seen a dramatic drop in Iraqi violence, and real gains in stability. In the American press, much of this stability has been chalked up to the "surge" of 30,000 or so extra troops, centered around Baghdad.

But was the surge the only, or even the main, factor creating this stability? To find out, TAP Online asked ten Iraq experts, from all sides of the political spectrum, to explain the forces and developments they believed had resulted in Iraq's relative stability, and evaluate the centrality of the surge. As you'll see in the following responses, it's not a question that's easily answered.

Shawn Brimley
Fellow, Center for a New American Security

The narrative surrounding the "surge" has been overly simplified by the McCain campaign. Senator McCain's mistake in claiming that the "surge" which started in the spring of 2007 caused the Sunni's to turn against al-Qaeda is clearly false. The Sunni tribes began to shift their allegiances in the Fall of 2006, in no small part due to the actions of U.S. troops in Anbar. The decline in violence in 2007 had much more to do with a change in U.S. strategy than simply the additional troops. A change in strategy, plus the Sunni Awakening, the decision of Sadr to stand down his militia, and the use of concrete barriers in Baghdad to separate Sunni and Shia were all extremely important factors that, along with the additional troops, combined to help lower the violence.

Finally, as Colonel Sean McFarland argued in Military Review: "A growing concern that the U.S. would leave Iraq and leave the Sunnis defenseless against al-Qaeda and Iranian-supported militias made these younger leaders open to our overtures."

The additional troops were an important contributing factor in reducing the violence, but only one of several variables. By downplaying the impact that a credible threat of withdrawal had in producing the security gains in 2007, the McCain campaign is grossly simplifying the war for political gain.

Juan Cole
Richard P. Mitchell Distinguished University Professor of History, University of Michigan

Decline of violence causes:

1. Dulaim tribesmen in Anbar developed a feud with Salafi Jihadis, who were hitting Dulaim young men who tried to join police; Dulaim took money from the United States to fight jihadis.

2. Shiite militias ethnically cleansed hundreds of thousands of Sunnis from Baghdad and environs, leaving few mixed neighborhoods and less opportunity for neighborhood killings. (Baghdad went from 65 percent Shiite in Jan. 2007 to 75 percent Shiite by late last summer.)

3. Extra oil income strengthened Iraqi security forces.

4. Badr Corps paramilitary of Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq won out in South over Sadr's movement, with help of Iraqi police and army and U.S. air support (e.g. Diwaniya, Karbala).

5. Sunnis left in West Baghdad took money from United States to form anti-jihadi militias.

6. Extra U.S. troops in Baghdad put in blast walls, no-drive markets, bridge and other checkpoints -- which may have had some impact in capital, though ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis was more important.


How Important Was the Surge? | The American Prospect

Sunday, July 27, 2008

Daily Kos: Blast from the Past: Downing Street Memo - July 23, 2002

For those of you who have heard the phrase "Downing Street Memo" and didn't know what it was or thought it was some conspiracy theory nut news, here is a brief education on what they actually were.  Downing street is where Prime Minister Tony Blair lived and the memo was of one of his meetings with his top advisers.

Six years ago today, Matthew Rycroft, private secretary to British Prime Minister Tony Blair, wrote a secret memorandum to the U.K.’s ambassador to the U.S., David Manning. The memo contained the minutes of a meeting held that same morning between Blair and a few senior foreign policy advisers. It was exposed by the Sunday Times nearly three years later. Two paragraphs stood out.

Rycroft spoke about a trip that Sir Richard Dearlove had recently taken to Washington. Dearlove, the head of the British Secret Intelligence Service or MI6, is referred to officially as "C":

C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime's record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action.

And there was this:

The Foreign Secretary said he would discuss this with Colin Powell this week. It seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military action, even if the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin. Saddam was not threatening his neighbours, and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya, North Korea or Iran. We should work up a plan for an ultimatum to Saddam to allow back in the UN weapons inspectors. This would also help with the legal justification for the use of force.


Daily Kos: Blast from the Past: Downing Street Memo - July 23, 2002