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Friday, March 20, 2009

Research 2000

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/16-19. All adults. MoE 2% (3/8-12 results):

PRESIDENT OBAMA67 (68)28 (27)-2

PELOSI:39 (38)41 (42)2
REID:34 (33)47 (46)+0
McCONNELL:19 (20)54 (53)-2
BOEHNER:13 (14)57 (55)-3

CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:44 (43)48 (49)+2
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:17 (16)72 (71)+0

DEMOCRATIC PARTY:53 (55)39 (38)-3
REPUBLICAN PARTY:27 (29)65 (66)-1

Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.

Let's start with the graphs from Congressional Parties and national parties:

From 1/22, when everyone's spirits were highest, Congressional Republicans' favorability have dropped from 26 then to 17 now. The national party has dropped from 34 to 27, same time frame.

The Congressional Democrats saw a whopping 13-point net gain in their favorability ratings on Feb 26, and haven't looked back. That week (Obama's address to the nation — with Bobby Jindal's response — was Feb 24), the gain came mostly among Democratic respondents, who went from 68-31 favorable/unfavorable to 71-18, and Independents, who went from 38-55 to 47-44.

Hey, what about Congressional leadership? Oh, my.

I keep thinking John Boehner can't get any lower, but he keeps fooling me. He gets 37/25 (fav/unfav) from Republicans this week, and a 9/62 (fav/unfav) from Independents.

Meanwhile, Obama's slight drop from peak (now at 67/28) is made up of favorables that break out this way: 89/9 D, 73/23 I, 23/68 R. This Obama net favorability (fav minus unfav) by party shows that it's unhappy R's that drive the numbers down. Watch those independents.

And keep these fav/unfav/no opinion numbers in mind:

SOUTH     42 50 8
MIDWEST   73 23 4
WEST      75 20 5

The South is different than the rest of us  [at least as far as polling patterns].

It's all about educational levels I tell ya!

Research 2000

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